Hello, loyal readers of Steadfast and Loyal! Today, we’re diving into the latest polling data following Donald Trump’s recent conviction in New York. Despite the media frenzy, it appears that this legal development has had little impact on the overall polling landscape. Let’s break down the numbers and see what’s really happening.
Mixed Polling Results Post-Conviction
As June begins, the polls present a mixed picture. Some surveys, like Morning Consult and Reuters, show President Biden gaining a couple of points. However, Trump also saw an increase in support in the Forbes-Harris X poll. This suggests that any bump Biden experienced might be temporary and not a significant shift in voter sentiment.
Polling experts often conduct “snap polls” right after major events, such as Trump’s conviction. These polls aim to capture immediate public reaction. But do they truly reflect long-term voter behavior? It seems that much of the public’s opinion on Trump’s legal troubles was already decided before the conviction. Those who believe the trial is politically motivated are unlikely to change their vote because of this conviction.
Fundraising Dynamics: Trump’s Financial Edge
One of the most notable outcomes of Trump’s conviction is the boost in his fundraising efforts. Trump has reportedly raised over $200 million from both small and large donors. This amount nearly matches Biden’s total campaign funds. With this influx of donations, the financial advantage Biden once held is now diminished.
This development is crucial. In past elections, Hillary Clinton outspent Trump by a significant margin but still lost. Having competitive fundraising allows Trump to spend effectively during the critical final months of the campaign. The conviction seems to have energized Trump’s base, resulting in a surge of donations and volunteer support.
Safe States: Strongholds for Trump and Biden
Let’s look at the electoral map, starting with the “safe” states—those that will almost certainly vote for one candidate by more than 10 percentage points.
Trump’s Safe States
For Trump, these include traditional Republican strongholds like Texas, Florida, and Ohio. New to this category are Iowa and South Carolina, reflecting shifting voter sentiments. In addition, Maine’s 2nd district and Alaska are also considered safe for Trump.
Biden’s Safe States
Biden’s safe states include the usual suspects: Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii. In the Northeast, states like Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Vermont, and New York remain solidly blue. Colorado, once a swing state, is now firmly in Biden’s column due to demographic changes.
Likely States: Close but Predictable
Next, we have the “likely” states, where the candidate is expected to win by a smaller margin.
Trump’s Likely States
Florida and Texas are trending more Republican. In Florida, Republican voter registration has increased significantly since 2020, and Texas shows similar trends. Both states are likely to vote for Trump by about eight points.
Biden’s Likely State
New Mexico remains a likely Democratic state. Although there are no recent polls, the state’s demographic trends favor Biden.
Lean States: Competitive Races
The “lean” states are where things get interesting. These states are competitive but show a slight edge for one candidate.
Trump’s Lean States
North Carolina: Trump leads by around five points. Increased Republican voter registration and lower expected Black turnout benefit Trump.
Georgia: Expected to flip back to Trump. Biden’s 2020 win was driven by high Black turnout, which is unlikely to be replicated. Trump is also making gains among young Black men.
Nevada: Trump is leading in polls by significant margins, even though Nevada polls tend to overestimate Republican support. Gains in party registration and weakening Democratic support suggest a Trump victory by a small margin.
Biden’s Lean States
Maine and New Hampshire: Both states are expected to lean towards Biden, though third-party candidates could affect margins.
Virginia: Polls show a tighter race than in 2020, but Biden is still favored. The state is likely to be closer to the 2016 margin than the 2020 one.
Nebraska’s 2nd District: This district could go either way, but current trends slightly favor Biden.
Tossup States: The Deciders
Finally, we have the “tossup” states. These are highly competitive and could go either way.
Pennsylvania
Trump leads by 2.3 points. Republican gains in voter registration and lower enthusiasm for Biden in key areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suggest a likely Trump win.
Michigan
A white working-class state with issues like the auto industry and border crisis playing significant roles. Trump has a slight edge due to disillusionment among Democrats and a moderate stance on issues like abortion.
Wisconsin
Polls have historically underestimated Trump here. Current trends favor Trump, with potential gains in key areas like Milwaukee and the surrounding counties.
Minnesota
Biden is expected to win, but by a smaller margin than in 2020. Discontent among white progressives and other key Democratic groups will narrow the gap.
Arizona
Trump leads by four points in polls. Gains among Hispanic voters and solid support from his base suggest a likely Trump victory.
Final Thoughts
Despite the conviction, Donald Trump’s polling numbers remain strong. He leads in key battleground states and has closed the financial gap with Biden. The conviction may have rallied his base, boosting both donations and support. While some polls show a temporary bump for Biden, the overall impact appears minimal. Trump continues to hold a significant lead as we approach the election.
What do you think about these latest developments? Will Trump maintain his lead, or will the conviction have a bigger impact down the line? Share your thoughts in the comments section below. We look forward to hearing from you!
Stay informed and stay loyal, Steadfast readers!
Vote!
Don’t believe Nebraska will vote for Biden as the farmers won’t trust him with agriculture and cattle as he cost them a lot in pricing. They’ve been a red state and they’ll stay that way.
If you’re a democrat and doesn’t like what your party is doing…it’s time you change party.
Love Trump I want him in power the next 20 years
I was supporting Trump BEFORE his sham trial in New York by a CORRUPT Judge Merchan, and D.A. Bragg, but AFTER this ridiculous conviction, I am more firmly supporting him with my vote!
good to hear – Thanks for the comment Sharon!