Big Primary Upset in Texas
Voters in Texas watched a clear upset as State Rep. Steve Toth beat Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the GOP primary for the 2nd Congressional District. With a majority of ballots counted, Toth led by a wide margin and appears likely to pass the 50 percent line needed to avoid a runoff. This district is reliably Republican so the primary winner is heavily favored to win in November. The upset ended Crenshaw’s run in the primary and showed conservative voters wanted a different direction.
Why President Donald Trump’s Choice Mattered
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed many Texas House Republicans but did not back Crenshaw in this race, a fact noticed by activists and voters. In a year when loyalty and alignment with conservative priorities are high on voters’ minds, that lack of endorsement set Crenshaw apart. Whether you agree with that strategy or not, it clearly mattered at the ballot box and gave momentum to Toth’s campaign.
🚨 BREAKING: Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw LOSES Republican primary to Steve Toth, he will now be UNSEATED come November in District 2
President Trump notably did not endorse Crenshaw
Wow! UPSET LOSS for Crenshaw. pic.twitter.com/50lNRSE5mR
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) March 4, 2026
Dan Crenshaw is getting smoked in this primary. pic.twitter.com/HAX99xJfFk
— Tim Young (@TimRunsHisMouth) March 4, 2026
RINO Dan Crenshaw has been defeated by Steve Toth.
Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/YwcY4bFx7r
— AF Post (@AFpost) March 4, 2026
Crenshaw looks cooked
58% of the vote is in and he’s down by 18 points
That would make 2 incumbents to lose pic.twitter.com/WRT2rM4V8k
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) March 4, 2026
Who Is Steve Toth
Steve Toth is a state representative from The Woodlands and a small business owner who ran as a hard-line conservative. He emphasized traditional GOP issues and secured endorsements from major conservative figures, including Senator Ted Cruz. Toth’s message resonated with primary voters who wanted firmer stands on limited government, election integrity, and cultural issues that matter to the base.
What This Result Means for the GOP
This primary result sends a message to incumbents: the conservative base will punish perceived departures from priority issues. Candidates seen as out of step with grassroots voters risk being replaced, even if they are well known or have fundraising advantages. For voters who want a purer conservative agenda, Toth’s victory will feel like a win. For party leaders, it is a reminder to pay attention to the base and not take primary voters for granted.
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