Big Drop in Homicides Reported for 2025
A new analysis from the Council on Criminal Justice finds homicides likely fell about 21 percent from 2024 to 2025, a decline that could push the national murder rate to roughly 4.0 per 100,000 people. If the FBI’s full nationwide data confirms that estimate later this year, it would be the lowest recorded homicide rate in roughly 125 years and the largest single-year percentage drop on record. That kind of swing is not small. It changes how Americans think about safety and gives policymakers real momentum to build on.
What the Council on Criminal Justice Found
The organization based its conclusions on available city-level data and reported broad decreases in violent crime. Their analysis of 40 cities found 25 percent fewer homicides compared to 2019, 13 percent fewer shootings and 29 percent fewer carjackings. The council noted the decline accelerated in 2025 even though crime had already begun to retreat in 2024. These figures come from public reports and independent researchers while the FBI prepares its official numbers for release.
The White House and Trump Team Take Credit
The White House marked the milestone as a fulfillment of President Trump’s pledge to make America safe, pointing to widespread drops in violent crime, fewer shooting deaths, an 80 year low in on duty law enforcement fatalities, and improvements in traffic and overdose deaths. The administration framed the turnaround as a reversal of policies they say emboldened criminals in previous years and highlighted a whole of government push into cities struggling with violent crime. Political opponents will argue causation but voters will notice safer streets.
Official Tweets Mark the Moment
The White House and press secretary amplified the news on social media, pushing the message that law and order is returning to the nation’s streets.
Blessed are the peacemakers, both at home and abroad. pic.twitter.com/1PSbeb7yd1
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) January 22, 2026
ICYMI: Murder Rate Plunges to 125-Year Low as President Trump Restores Law and Orderhttps://t.co/9FVjG6B6fy
— Karoline Leavitt (@PressSec) January 22, 2026
Some Cities Still Lag Behind
Not every city saw the same level of improvement. Of 35 cities analyzed for homicide rates, eight still had higher murder rates in 2025 than before the pandemic. Milwaukee was about 42 percent higher, Austin 36 percent higher, and Minneapolis around 30 percent higher. That patchwork pattern shows national trends can hide tough local problems and explains why federal and state interventions have focused on specific hot spots rather than a one size fits all approach.
Federal Moves and Local Resistance
The Department of Homeland Security has made removing criminal illegal aliens a priority in several cities, including Minneapolis, which has pushed back at federal efforts through local leaders. The tension between federal enforcement and local policies fosters heated debate, but the data suggests that targeted federal action combined with local cooperation can move the needle on violent crime in places with the worst recent spikes.
Americans Are Feeling Safer
Public sentiment appears to be following the data. A Gallup poll from October found fewer Americans view crime as an extremely or very serious problem in the United States, dropping from 63 percent to 49 percent year over year. That shift toward lower perceived threat levels matters politically and practically because confidence in public safety influences commerce, community life, and voter priorities.
What This Means Going Forward
If the FBI confirms the council’s estimates, policymakers who campaigned on restoring law and order will have a tangible success to point to, and local leaders will have new evidence to justify continued investment in proven strategies. The work is not done. Cities that still struggle need focused resources and accountability. But when violent crime retreats this much in a single year it deserves attention and follow through rather than reflexive dismissal.
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