RFK Jr.’s 2024 Bid: A Perot-like Disruption in the Making? Who Benefits – Trump or Biden?

In the unfolding drama of the 2024 presidential race, a narrative reminiscent of Ross Perot’s historic 1992 campaign is emerging, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stepping into the role of the independent candidate capable of reshaping the electoral landscape. As Kennedy gears up for a bid that echoes the independent streak of Perot, the political arena is abuzz with speculation: Could RFK Jr. pull enough votes to decisively swing the election? And crucially, who stands to benefit from this shake-up, Trump or Biden?

A Perot-Esque Strategy Unfolds

Kennedy’s strategy to secure ballot access in every state mirrors the ambitious approach of Ross Perot, who in 1992 managed to capture an astonishing 19% of the popular vote which ultimately propelled Bill Clinton to victory over George Bush. This comparison, drawn by man news outlets lately, is not merely superficial. Like Perot, Kennedy is tapping into a vein of voter dissatisfaction with the two major parties, positioning himself as a populist alternative who transcends traditional political boundaries.

The parallels are striking. Kennedy, leveraging his famous lineage and a message that resonates with a broad swath of disenchanted voters, has already made significant inroads. His campaign has been marked by a notable achievement in Utah, where he became the first independent candidate to secure ballot access for 2024, signaling a potentially disruptive presence on the national stage.

The Electorate’s Thirst for Alternatives

The current political climate is ripe for an independent candidate like Kennedy. Discontent with the likely major party nominees is palpable, with a significant portion of the electorate expressing a lack of enthusiasm for a Biden-Trump rematch. This sentiment mirrors the disillusionment that propelled Perot’s candidacy in the early ’90s, suggesting that Kennedy could indeed siphon off votes in a manner that affects the election’s outcome.

Polling data underscores Kennedy’s potential impact. With support numbers that occasionally echo Perot’s, Kennedy’s candidacy is no laughing matter. His appeal to voters “against the machine” has been highlighted as a serious factor that could reshape the electoral calculus in 2024.

The Trump-Biden Equation

The million-dollar question remains: Who benefits from Kennedy’s candidacy, Trump or Biden? Analysis of Kennedy’s support base and potential voting patterns offers some insights. Kennedy’s anti-establishment stance and populist appeal have the potential to attract voters from both sides of the aisle, but the dynamics of the 2024 race could skew these effects in unpredictable ways.

Historically, third-party candidates have been viewed as spoilers, potentially drawing votes away from major party candidates who are closely aligned with their positions. In Kennedy’s case, his anti-vaccine stance and broader critique of the political establishment resonate with segments of the electorate that might otherwise lean toward Trump, suggesting that his candidacy could, in fact, erode Trump’s base to some extent.

However, the situation is complex. Kennedy’s ability to attract disenchanted Democrats and independents who are wary of Biden’s performance could equally tip the scales. His campaign’s focus on issues like “healing the divide” speaks to a broader discontent that transcends partisan boundaries, making his impact on the Biden vote equally plausible.

Swing States and Electoral Calculus

The true measure of Kennedy’s influence will likely be felt in swing states, where the margins of victory can be razor-thin. His campaign’s strategic focus on states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada—critical battlegrounds that could determine the election’s outcome—underscores the seriousness of his bid. If Kennedy can replicate Perot’s success in capturing a significant share of the vote in these states, he could indeed turn the tide of the election, rendering one candidate a winner and the other a loser.

Final Thoughts

As the 2024 election approaches, the specter of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent candidacy looms large, evoking memories of Ross Perot’s disruptive bid in 1992. With a strategy that mirrors Perot’s and a message that resonates with a wide swath of the electorate, Kennedy is poised to play a pivotal role in the upcoming election. The impact of his candidacy on the Trump-Biden dynamic remains a subject of intense speculation, with potential implications for both major party candidates.

Kennedy’s ability to draw votes from both sides of the political spectrum, coupled with his strategic focus on swing states, suggests that his candidacy could indeed swing the election. While the ultimate beneficiary of this electoral shake-up remains to be seen, one thing is clear: RFK Jr.’s 2024 bid is a development that neither Trump nor Biden can afford to ignore. As the race unfolds, the political establishment would do well to heed the lessons of 1992, when Ross Perot’s independent campaign left an indelible mark on the American electoral landscape.

Let us know who you think an RFK general election run would benefit:  Trump or Biden?



  1. Johnny B Reply

    Kennedy is going to vacuum up voted that would have gone to biden. Trump will also lose votes, but from those voters that always vote against him, so no major loss to Trump.
    Kennedy is going to destroy biden.

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