Latest Polls Paint a Startling Picture
The most recent polling data is in, and it presents an unexpected scenario. If the 2024 elections were to take place today, it appears that former President Donald Trump would likely secure the national popular vote. Based on the latest polling average from 538, Trump is ahead of Biden by 2.1 percentage points, with a score of 41.9% compared to Biden’s 39.8%. Surprisingly, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has made a significant impact, securing 99.8%.
The Debate Shift
The shift in favor of Trump by two points occurred immediately following last week’s debate. It’s evident that the debate considerably influenced voters’ opinions. But how does Trump fare against Biden in critical battleground states?
Battleground States Breakdown
Trump’s potential return for a second non-consecutive term at the White House hinges on winning enough states to reach the requisite 270 electoral votes. Let’s examine the battleground states that will be crucial in deciding the outcome of the 2024 election.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire is a must-win state for Biden if he hopes for re-election. However, current indicators suggest a challenging path ahead for him. The latest poll from St. Anselm College shows Trump leading Biden by two points – 44% to 42%, with Kennedy securing 4%. Considering Biden won New Hampshire by 7% in the previous election, this represents a significant shift.
Maine
In Maine, which hasn’t voted Republican since 1988, Trump is leading by eight points according to a survey conducted in April. Maine utilizes ranked-choice voting, meaning Kennedy’s 15% could potentially delay determining the final result. Trump is also leading considerably in Maine’s second district, making it a likely Republican stronghold.
Nebraska’s Second District
In Nebraska’s second district, Biden is currently leading by five points according to the latest poll. However, this district has been trending leftward recently, moving from Romney +8 in 2012 to Biden +7 in 2020.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania, a crucial state with 19 electoral votes, shows Trump leading by 4.3 points – 48.3% to Biden’s 44%. Biden won Pennsylvania by a narrow margin of 1.2% in 2020. If Trump carries Pennsylvania, it could potentially tip the balance of the election.
Michigan
In Michigan, traditionally a Democratic stronghold among the rust belt states, Trump leads by three points according to the latest poll. With Kennedy securing 10%, this state is leaning towards Trump. Biden won Michigan by three points in 2020, but losing it would be a significant blow to his campaign.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin, another key battleground state, is currently deadlocked between Trump and Biden, each polling at 44%. Wisconsin has been decided by less than a point in four of the last six election cycles. While Biden has been polling well here among swing states, Trump has historically outperformed polls in Wisconsin.
Minnesota
In Minnesota, Biden leads by a slim margin of 0.3%. This state, which Biden won by seven points in 2020, is now barely favoring Democrats. It’s another must-win state for Biden that appears to be slipping away.
Iowa and Ohio
Both Iowa and Ohio are heavily leaning towards Trump. The latest polls show Trump leading by 18 points in Iowa and seven points in Ohio. These states, which Trump won by more than eight points in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, seem to be off the Democrats’ target list.
Virginia
Recent polls show Trump being unexpectedly competitive in Virginia, a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020. The latest survey shows a tie at 41% each. Virginia joins Wisconsin in the “tied” category, indicating it’s now a toss-up state.
North Carolina
In North Carolina, Trump leads by four points according to the latest survey. Trump won this state by three points in 2016 and one point in 2020. Unless Biden’s numbers improve significantly, North Carolina is likely to remain Republican.
Georgia
The latest poll shows Trump leading by five points in Georgia. Biden won Georgia by a mere 0.2% in 2020, but Trump’s growing support among Black and Hispanic voters is making this traditionally conservative state lean Republican once again.
Florida
In Florida, Trump leads by six points. Florida has consistently shifted right since Trump carried it by 3.4% in 2020. The latest survey indicates that Trump’s lead in Florida could be the largest win for any candidate in the state since 1988.
Texas
Texas, which holds 40 electoral votes, shows Trump leading by five points according to the latest poll. This margin is similar to Trump’s victory margin in 2020. The GOP’s gains among Hispanic voters in Texas are significant, making it lean Republican.
Colorado and New Mexico
Both Colorado and New Mexico are leaning towards Biden. The latest polls show Biden leading by six points in Colorado and seven points in New Mexico. These states have been trending blue in recent elections.
Arizona and Nevada
Trump leads in both Arizona and Nevada. In Arizona, Trump is ahead by six points, while in Nevada, he leads by three points. These states, which Biden won in 2020, are now tilting towards Trump.
Final Thoughts
Based on the most recent polls, Trump leads with 281 electoral votes to Biden’s 207. Trump has flipped critical states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. He is also within striking distance in Virginia, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
A lot can change as new post-debate polls come in, and there’s still the question of whether the Democratic Party will replace Biden with another candidate, possibly Vice President Kamala Harris.
What are your thoughts on the current state of the 2024 election? We encourage you to share your views in the comment section below. Don’t forget to subscribe to our newsletter for more updates and analysis. Your support means everything to us.
Trump will get an even larger portion of the “Legal” vote in most states than he did in 2020.
It should be a “landslide” but will he become President again?
President Trump is the choice of any intelligent, pro-God, pro-America citizen.The reason devildemocommiecrats want the 20 million illegal alien invaders in and oppose voter ID is so they can steal this election too through unconstitutional TREASON!!!!! They know no one on the devildemocommiecrat party side can beat President Trump in a fair election and theirvtactics of 2020 won’t work again. But will dementia leave office when he loses? My guess is that he will not!!!!!!!!!! Jill wants the power and prestige , hunter wants protection from his acts of TREASON and the money hets from our enemies for selling access to them, and all the advantages of “white privilege” that he has enjoyed all his life!!!!!!!!!!