Well, folks, the Democratic Party has done it again. Just when you think somebody at headquarters might look at an electoral map, notice that Florida isn’t exactly Berkeley with humidity, and nominate somebody capable of winning a statewide election, Democratic voters went in another direction. State Rep. Angie Nixon stunned the political world by defeating establishment favorite Alexander Vindman for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. Now Nixon, who recently joined the Democratic Socialists of America, gets to face Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November. And somewhere in Republican headquarters, somebody is presumably ordering champagne.
David Beat Goliath — And Goliath Had About $16 Million
Before Republicans laugh themselves unconscious, however, there’s something about Nixon’s victory they shouldn’t ignore: this woman just pulled off one hell of an upset. Vindman raised more than $16 million while Nixon raised less than $1 million, yet Nixon beat him by roughly 12 percentage points. That’s not squeaking through because three precincts forgot to turn on the voting machines. That’s a beating. Nixon did particularly well in lower-income, less-college-educated and heavily Black communities, and Reuters reports that her campaign focused heavily on bread-and-butter issues including housing, health care and affordability. So yes, conservatives can—and should—challenge her policies. But dismissing her as some purple-haired socialist who wandered out of a campus protest would be stupid. Nixon figured out something Vindman and his millions didn’t: voters generally like politicians who actually talk to them about their lives. Imagine that.
Then There’s That Little DSA Problem
Here’s where the Democratic victory party gets awkward. Nixon joined the Democratic Socialists of America in June, although the organization didn’t endorse her and Nixon says she doesn’t agree with everything it supports. She’s specifically rejected defunding the police, says she wants to eliminate for-profit prisons rather than all prisons, and has distanced herself from the national DSA’s praise of Fidel Castro. That’s an important distinction because facts still matter around here, even when they’re inconvenient. But good luck fitting all those disclaimers onto a campaign sign. Ashley Moody doesn’t need Nixon to support every plank of the DSA platform. She needs three letters: DSA. In Florida. With enormous Cuban and Venezuelan communities. You can practically hear the Republican campaign commercials being edited already.
Democrats Are Having a Socialist Identity Crisis
And Nixon isn’t appearing out of nowhere. Democratic-socialist and hard-left candidates have scored several noteworthy primary victories this cycle, fueled partly by voters who think the Democratic establishment is old, ineffective and increasingly disconnected from working people. Nixon’s victory fits that rebellion even if she doesn’t fit neatly into every DSA ideological box. The funniest part is that Democrats themselves recognize the danger. Axios reported that Florida Democratic Party chair Nikki Fried warned Nixon about the political vulnerability created by her DSA ties, leading to what was apparently a rather spirited conversation between the two. Nothing says party unity quite like winning your primary and immediately arguing with your state party chair about whether the word “socialist” is going to destroy you in November.
Ashley Moody Couldn’t Have Ordered a Better Opponent
Florida was already a long shot for Democrats. Republicans hold a roughly 1.5-million-voter registration advantage, Florida hasn’t elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 2012, and Reuters reported after the primary that nonpartisan analysts believed Nixon’s victory probably made an already difficult Democratic pickup even less likely. Moody can now run on taxes, crime, socialism, Castro, the DSA and whatever else Republicans decide to throw into the blender. Meanwhile Nixon will spend precious campaign time explaining that she joined the Democratic Socialists of America but isn’t really that kind of socialist and doesn’t agree with those socialists about several socialist things. That’s a wonderfully simple message for voters to digest.
But Republicans Shouldn’t Get Too Comfortable
Here’s the part my Republican friends may not want to hear: Nixon’s primary victory should also scare the hell out of the political establishment. She got buried financially and won anyway. She talked about housing, wages, health care, child care and working families, and voters responded. Conservatives who answer those concerns with nothing more sophisticated than “SOCIALISM!” risk missing the lesson. People are frustrated. They’re getting killed by housing costs, grocery bills, insurance and health care, and they’re increasingly willing to vote for candidates promising radical solutions because they don’t think Washington’s conventional solutions are doing much for them. If Republicans don’t offer convincing free-market answers to those problems, eventually Democrats may find a candidate who packages Nixon’s economic populism without carrying three politically radioactive letters around Florida.
Final Thoughts
I think Ashley Moody wins this race, and probably comfortably. Florida has moved dramatically toward Republicans, Nixon carries political baggage that couldn’t be better designed for a GOP campaign, and Democrats may have taken a difficult Senate race and turned it into Mount Everest wearing flip-flops. But Angie Nixon shouldn’t be treated as a joke. She just defeated a nationally known candidate with roughly sixteen times her fundraising because she connected with voters who believed the Democratic establishment wasn’t listening to them. That’s the real warning buried underneath all the socialist comedy. Democrats have a growing insurgency on their hands, Republicans have been handed an enormous political opportunity, and both parties should pay attention to why voters are increasingly willing to blow up the establishment. Laugh at the DSA all you want. I certainly will. Just don’t laugh so hard that you miss what’s happening underneath it.
WE’D LOVE TO HEAR YOUR THOUGHTS! PLEASE COMMENT BELOW.
JIMMY
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