Claire McCaskill is almost to the point where life support won’t help her at all. Shia about to lose her seat and it won’t be close enough where voter fraud can pull it out for her.
She was in bad shape in 2012 but she gave Republican candidate 1.5 million dollars and he won the nomination. There were four Republican candidates and he was the only one in the polls she was beating. That saved her political life, but she is not in the same position this year and she will be facing a strong candidate in Josh Hawley and Austin Petersen. In the most recent poll, Hawley leads McCaskill by 7 points and Petersen leads her by 16 whopping points.
Of all the Senators running for reelection this year, McCaskill is the most likely to lose. She’s been in office for 12 years and has reached the pinnacle of her unfavorable ratings. Her current favorability number is 40%. She’s lucky she has a large family. We have known for 2 years that we could break it wide open this year. Her grating manner causes many of her fellow Senators to be repulsed by her but she has always been a reliable liberal voter and no bill could be weird enough to get her to vote against it.
McCaskill isn’t alone though. Democrats could easily lose seats in Montana, South Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia and several more that could swing before then. Once they are sworn in the John McCains and Susan Collins and Lindsay Grahams will have no effect on the outcome.