Goldman Sachs Predicts Trump’s Reelection

Presidential elections are all about pocketbook issues and Goldman Sachs says that favors a second term for President Donald Trump. Between the tax cuts and the stock market, the economy is going great guns. The stock market is lifting everyone’s 401k plans.

Incumbent presidents already have a built-in advantage even with a slightly lower approval rating. That’s because incumbent presidents have a built in 5 to 7 point advantage. Keeping President Trump in office for a second term will assure the voters a continuing economy still rebounding from 8 years of Obama, whereas Democrats are liable to tank the economy again.


A second term for President Donald Trump is more likely than not, according to Goldman Sachs economists who analyzed the setup for the 2020 election.

Incumbent presidents tend to have a “built-in advantage” of 5 to 6 percentage points in the popular vote, according to the bank’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius. A stronger economy under the Trump administration is also adding to his edge headed into the 2020 election, which Goldman predicts to be a “close call” leaning in favor of the incumbent.

“The advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance ahead of the presidential election suggest that President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him,” Hatzius said in a note on Saturday.

Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package and increased government spending have boosted wage gains and employment, sending the economic growth rate to nearly 3 percent in 2018. Economic factors including income, payrolls and GDP are widely used to predict election outcomes, and they have all seen improvement since Trump took office, Goldman said.

“A strong economy should help the president’s reelection chances. … Political scientists have developed a number of election models over the years that rely mainly on economic variables to predict the two-party popular vote,” Hatzius said.

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