This past Monday, Old Uncle Joe outright dismissed any talks about a potential recession in the run-up to the upcoming GDP numbers that many of the country’s experts think will point directly toward a recession.
While talking to the gathered press in the wake of a press conference about the massive $52 billion “CHIPS Act” that is worming its way through Congress, Biden was questioned by Peter Doocy, the Fox News White House reporter, concerning his fears about a possible recession, as many expert economists seem to think that we will see second-quarter Gross Domestic Product growth to decline for another consecutive quarter, which would point toward the U.S. economy being in a recession.
“Mr. President, we’re getting GDP numbers on Thursday,” exclaimed Doocy. “How worried should Americans be that we could be in a recession?”
“We’re not gonna be in a recession, in my view,” answered Biden, while talking to the group via Zoom due to his recent positive diagnosis of COVID-19. “The [un]employment rate is still one of the lowest we’ve had in history, it’s in the 3.6 [percent] area. We still find ourselves with people investing. My hope is we go from this rapid growth to steady growth, so we’ll see some coming down. But I don’t think we’re going to, God willing, I don’t think we’re going to see a recession.”
Biden: "We're not gonna be in a recession."pic.twitter.com/TylryJ5Jp8
— Daily Wire (@realDailyWire) July 25, 2022
The comments from Biden come as those within his administration scramble to carry out political damage control, even as the economy quickly slips towards a now probably recession. The current standard rule of thumb for the identification of a recession is a pair of back-to-back quarters sporting negative growth in GDP; a rule which was set up back in1974 by Julius Shiskin, an economist.
However, in recent months, many members of the Biden administration have been attempting to rewrite a broader definition of recession from the National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonprofit group, which the White House has labeled as “the official recession scorekeeper.” The NBER stated that a recession is defined as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
The White House first started its damage control campaign via a recent blog post sent out on its official website. “While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle,” stated officials within the White House. “Instead, both official determinations of recessions and economists’ assessment of economic activity are based on a holistic look at the data — including the labor market, consumer and business spending, industrial production, and incomes. Based on these data, it is unlikely that the decline in GDP in the first quarter of this year — even if followed by another GDP decline in the second quarter — indicates a recession.” The White House made direct reference to the NBER’s definition of a recession in its post.