When it comes to favorability ratings Democrats have reached an historic low with Biden, Sanders and Warren all being underwater in the polling. Joe Bisen is one point underwater at 43.4 to 44.3 percent. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is upside down by about a half point, 39.8 to 40.2 percent. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is upside down by nearly two points, 43.6 to 45.2 percent.
By contrast George W Bush was up by 33 points in 2000 Barack Obama was up by 20 in 2008. But here is the shocker. In 2016 Donald trump was underwater by 26 points. But let me just say, “I knew Donald Trump. Donald Trump was a friend of mine. But Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are no Donald Trump” The more people learned about Trump, the better they liked him. But the more people know about the Democrats, the worse they like them.
What these numbers tell me is that someone else could end up being the nominee. maybe Buttigieg or Gabbard, but certainly not Castro, Harris or Booker. It also tells me that President Trump could win by a bigger margin than he did in 2016. The Democrats have no one that inspires enthusiasm.
The number that is most surprising here is Biden. Even though he was Obama’s vice president and Obama left office with approval ratings in the 60s, Biden is still underwater.
It is not difficult to understand why Fake Indian Warren is underwater. It’s not hard to see why the 485-year-old socialist Bernie is underwater. You would think, though, that even if people were not going to vote for Biden that he would be seen as more favorable than unfavorable, if only because of his association with Obama, who was a popular president.
So what does this mean for 2020…?
Well, it matters in some important ways…
First off, Americans do not fire presidents lightly. Since 1932 — we’re talking almost 90 years — only two elected presidents who sought reelection have lost: Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. (Gerald Ford was not elected.)
More important, though, is WHY they lost. Both were battered by a recession, and both were challenged by charismatic, energetic, intelligent superstars: Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.